国有企业对全民分红拉动国民生产总值增长的定量分析

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国有企业对全民分红拉动国民生产总值增长的定量分析
摘  要

 随着国务院2007年《关于试行国有资本经营预算的意见》的实施，国有企业向国家上缴利润已经成为一个不争的事实。但是国有企业上缴的利润中，是否应该拿出一部分来向全体国民分红？以及分红后会对我国的国民经济产生多大的拉动作用？这两个问题目前还处于讨论阶段。
 本文首先分析、论证了国有企业对全民分红从理论上是正确的、从实践上是可行的，然后进入国有企业对全民分红对我国经济的拉动作用的定量分析，选择了凯恩斯的绝对收入理论和弗里德曼的永久性收入理论作为理论基础，运用计量经济学的方法，建立包括消费函数在内的宏观经济数学模型，并运用居民消费的历年数据进行定量分析，从增加永久性收入和提高居民收入的边际消费倾向这两个方面得出结论，确认国企向全民分红对改善我国的需求结构、拉动GDP增长所起的重要作用。

关键词：国有企业分红 公有制产权理论 消费乘数 永久性收入 边际消费倾向
 

Dividends to the people of state-owned enterprises driven GDP growth of quantitative analysis
ABSTRACT

 With the State Council in 2007 "on the trial of state-owned capital operating budget of the views of" the implementation of state-owned enterprises, the profits turned over to the state has become an indisputable fact. However, the profits of state-owned enterprises in turn, should take part of the dividend to all citizens? And after the dividend the national economy will have a role in how much pull? These two problems is still at the discussion stage.
 In this paper, the analysis demonstrated that the dividends of state-owned enterprises on the popular theory is correct, in practice it is feasible, and then all the people entering the dividends of state-owned enterprises on China's economy boosted by the role of quantitative analysis, selected the Keynesian theory and the absolute income Friedman's permanent income theory as the theoretical basis for the use of econometric methods, including the consumption function, including the establishment of the mathematical model of macroeconomic and consumer use of the quantitative analysis of historical data, from the increase in permanent income and improve the income of marginal propensity to consume these two aspects come to the conclusion, confirmed that state-owned enterprises dividends to the people of our country needs to improve the structure, driving GDP growth in the important role played by.

Key words：Dividends of state-owned enterprises   Public ownership of property rights theory  Consumption multiplier   Permanent income   Marginal propensity to consume
 
 目  录

摘  要 I
 ABSTRACT II
 目  录 III
 1  绪  论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2历史的进程：国企利润的去向 1
1.3未来的展望：具有双重社会意义的国企对全民分红 3
 2  国企对全民分红的理论分析和可行性估计 4
2.1基于公有制产权基础的理论分析 4
2.2国企对全民分红的宏观经济效应的定性分析 5
2.3国企对全民分红的可行性估计 5
2.3.1阿拉斯加社会分红实践 5
2.3.2现阶段我国国企对全民分红的可操作性分析 6
 3  基于凯恩斯绝对收入消费理论的定量分析 7
3.1宏观经济模型 7
3.2 回归结果 8
3.3乘数效应分析 10
4基于弗里德曼永久性收入消费理论的定量分析 12
4.1 回归模型 12
4.2回归结果 13
4.3回归模型检验 14
4.4边际消费倾向分析 16
 5  国企对全民分红是拉动消费需求增长的有效措施 18
5.1 国企对全民分红是增加民众永久性收入的措施 18
5.2 我国消费者收入心理的定量分析 18
5.3 结论 19
 6  结  语 20
 谢  辞 22

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