XCLW159415 我国通货膨胀的发生及治理引言····················································1 第一节 研究背景与意义········································1一、我国通货膨胀的现实··············..
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XCLW159415 我国通货膨胀的发生及治理 引言····················································1 第一节 研究背景与意义········································1 一、我国通货膨胀的现实······································1 二、研究意义················································2 第二节文献综述················································3 一、国内文献················································3 二、国外文献················································6 第三节研究主题、思路、方法与结构······························11 一、研究主题··················································11 二、研究思路与方法············································11 三、范文结构··················································12 第二章通货膨胀的理论分析········································13 第一节通货膨胀的定义··········································13 一通货膨胀的内涵与外延······································13 二、现代通货膨胀的基本特征····································14 第二节通货膨胀的衡量··········································15 一、通货膨胀的衡量指标······································15 二、通货膨胀的分类··········································16 第三节影响通货膨胀的主要因素··································17 一、货币因素················································17 二、总需求变动··············································18 三、成本因素················································18 四、预期因素················································18 五、国际因素················································19 六、政府清廉程度············································20 第三章我国通货膨胀的状况:数据分析·······························23 第一节我国2002年~2013年通货膨胀的基本状况···················23 一、我国2002年~2005年通货膨胀的基本状况························25 二、我国2006年一2009年通货膨胀的基本状况·····················25 三、我国2010年~2013年通货膨胀的基本状况······················26 第二节我国2002年~2013年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················26 一、我国2002年~2005年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················26 二、我国2006年~2009年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················27 三、我国2010年~2013年通货膨胀的基本特征·····················28 第三节我国通货膨胀的趋势·······································29 一、我国通货膨胀变动的基本特征·······························29 二、我国通货膨胀变动的背景···································29 第四章我国通货膨胀发生机理:实证研究·······························31 第一节模型设定、数据说明与处理··································31 一、模型设定··················································31 二、数据说明··················································31 三、数据处理··················································32 第二节我国2002年~2013年通货膨胀的实证分析······················41 一、我国2002年~2005年通货膨胀的实证分析····················· 41 二、我国2006年~2009年通货膨胀的实证分析······················46 三、我国2010年~20”年通货膨胀的实证分析······················49 第三节我国通货膨胀的形成机制··································· 53 一、基本原因与诱发因素········································53 二、传导机制的特点:快速扩张及叠加效应·························54 第五章各类商品价格对通货膨胀的作用································56 第一节各类商品价格对通货膨胀的作用······························56 一、模型设定与数据说明·········································56 二、计量分析··················································57 第二节各类食品价格对通货膨胀的作用······························64 一、模型设定与数据说明········································64 二、计量分析··················································64 第三节实证结果总结··············································67 一、各类商品价格指数为视角····································67 二、各类食品价格指数为视角········································67 第六章我国现阶段通货膨胀的治理建议······························· 69 第一节转变经济发展方式··········································69 一、提高全要素生产率，促进总产出的提高·························69 二、减小对国际能源的依赖程度···································70 第二节提高货币政策的效力·········································71 一、格守规则的货币政策，不使用易变的货币政策····················71 二、确定货币政策传导机制各环节间的关系··························71 三、减轻货币政策时滞所产生的影响······························72 四、治理高通货膨胀时，应主要采取紧缩性货币政策················72 第三节完善流动性管理、合理利用外资······························72 一、完善流动性管理············································72 二、合理利用外商投资··········································72 参考文献··························································74 致谢······························································78 在读期间完成的科研成果目录········································79 内 容 摘 要 通货膨胀，长期以来一直是经济学和金融学领域里一个炙手可热的研究问 题，没有任何一个问题能够像通货膨胀一样被反复研究讨论。它是影响大多数 国家经济健康发展并且反复发作的顽症，牵涉到一个国家的经济社会稳定以及 人民大众的生活水平。而在不同的经济发展时期，通货膨胀的发生机理是不同 的，必须根据不同的通货膨胀发生机理来制定不同的通货膨胀治理政策。基于 此，本文在归纳总结通货膨胀相关文献的基础上，采用定量分析与定性分析相 结合的研究方法，对2002年以来我国通货膨胀的发生机理进行比较分析，并针 对现阶段的发生机理提出相应的治理对策。本文首先对通货膨胀进行理论分析; 随后对2002年以后我国所经历的各轮通货膨胀的基本特征、基本状况进行比较 分析，说明导致我国各轮通货膨胀的基本原因、诱发因素是不同的，然后归纳 出现阶段我国通货膨胀的发生机理和传导机制;随后从分类商品价格指数的视 角来看我国现阶段的通货膨胀;最后在不影响我国经济正常增长的情况下，对 现阶段所存在的通货膨胀的治理提出政策性建议。通过研究发现，现阶段我国 通货膨胀主要是由于社会消费品零售总额的增长率、国际市场能源价格指数的 增长率、准货币供应量的增长率、粮食类商品价格的上升所造成的，而实际利 用外商直接投资金额的增加对抑制通货膨胀有一定的作用。并以此提出了治理 我国现阶段通货膨胀的措施:一、转变经济发展方式;二、提高货币政策的效 力;三、完善流动性管理、合理利用外资。 我国通货膨胀的发生及治理相关范文 |
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