国际储备最优币种结构：欧元的影响与美元的未来

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 欧元已经存在了七年，而欧元纸币和硬币作为结算货币也有四年了。虽然，现在来评价一个多世纪以来所建立的唯一一种主要货币的影响还为时尚早，但它的成功推出已经在国际金融上产生了巨大影响。举例来说，越来越多的企业和政府通过发行欧元计价的证券来获得外部融资。近年来，在国际贸易中，以欧元作为发行和结算货币的交易明显增加。有这样一种观点，从美元主导到欧元主导的资产组合的转变，特别是中央银行的组合转变，将使欧元相对于美元的吸引力骤增。而政界、学界和公众所面临的关键问题是：欧元是否会挑战美元的霸主地位甚至最终取代美元成为世界货币的主导。

 The euro has been in existence for seven years, and euro notes and coins have been in circulation for four years. Although it is still premature to evaluate the full implications of the only major currency established for more than a century, its successful introduction has already brought significant consequences for international finance. For example, a growing number of firms and sovereigns raise external finance issuing euro-denominated securities. The use of the euro as a currency for the settlement or invoicing of international trade transactions has also shown a notable increase in recent years (ECB, 2005). There is concern that portfolio shifts from dollar-to euro-denominated assets, in particular, by central banks, could result in a sharp appreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. And a key question among politicians, academics, and the public is whether the euro will challenge or eventually displace the dollar as the leading international currency.

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