信贷危机是全球经济的转折点

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信贷危机是全球经济的转折点

 当今是全球经济的历史性时刻。在1997年和1998年的新兴市场金融危机，以及2000年科技股泡沫破裂时，我也有同样的感觉。我认为，对于金融市场和全球经济而言，目前的“信贷紧缩”可能也是一个同样重要的转折点。我为什么这样认为呢？请听我一一解释。
 首先，最为重要的是，目前信贷市场上，英国式以交易为导向的金融资本主义的可信度正遭受严重打击。在纽约和伦敦等核心金融市场上，一直上演的是裙带资本主义(crony capitalism)和严重无能相混合的情形。从向“三无”借款人（无收入、无工作、无资产）发放次级贷款，到那些最终证明几乎不可能理解、估值或出售的资产的配售（以及有利的评级），这些行为充满着利益冲突和失效。在随后的“反射性畏缩”时期，核心金融市场陷入痉挛。

Why the credit squeeze is a turning point for the world
Margaret Miller． Credit Reporting Systems and the International Economy[M]． The MIT Press
 These are historic moments for the world economy. I felt the same during the emerging market financial crises of 1997 and 1998 and the bubble in technology stocks that burst in 2000. This “credit crunch” may, I believe, be an equally important turning point for financial markets and the world economy. Why do I believe this? Let me count the ways.
 First and most important, what is happening in credit markets today is a huge blow to the credibility of the Anglo-Saxon model of transactions-orientated financial capitalism. A mixture of crony capitalism and gross incompetence has been on display in the core financial markets of New York and London. From the “ninja” (no-income, no-job, no-asset) subprime lending to the placing (and favourable rating) of assets that turn out to be almost impossible to understand, value or sell, these activities have been riddled with conflicts of interest and incompetence. In the subsequent era of “revulsion”, core financial markets have seized up (see charts).

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