巴菲特和格罗斯警告：516万亿美元的大泡沫是一场在等待发生的灾难

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ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) –
 "Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength", wrote Warren Buffett. That was five years before the subprime-credit meltdown.  
"We try to be alert to any sort of mega-catastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly appreciative about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."  
That warning was in Buffett's 2002 letter to Berkshire shareholders. He saw a future that many others chose to ignore. The Iraq war build-up was at a fever-pitch. The imagery of WMDs and a mushroom cloud fresh in his mind.  
Also fresh on Buffett's mind: His acquisition of General Re four years earlier, about the time the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund almost killed the global monetary system. How? This is crucial: LTCM nearly killed the system with a relatively small $5 billion trading loss. Peanuts compared with the hundreds of billions of dollars of subprime-credit write-offs now making Wall Street's big shots look like amateurs.  

 “查理和我相信，伯克希尔应该是一个金融力量的凝聚”，在次级贷款危机爆发的五年前巴菲特写道。
 “我们要努力警惕任何形式的特大灾难风险，而且形势使我们过分欣赏急速增长的长期衍生工具合约及大量的无担保应收款的增长。但我们认为，衍生品是携带危险的大规模杀伤性金融武器，尽管现在潜伏，却可能致命”。
 在2002年巴菲特写给伯克希尔股东的信里作出这一警告。他预见到了一个很多人忽视了的未来。伊拉克战争集结是个热点。大规模杀伤性武器的比喻和蘑菇云闪现在他的头脑理。
出现在巴菲特头脑的还有：4年前他收购了通用再保险公司，当时对冲基金长期资本管理公司几乎扼杀了全球货币体系。为何呢？至关重要的是：长期资本管理公司几乎以相对较小的50亿美元的交易损失扼杀了该系统。这个小数额与现在华尔街的数千亿美元的次级贷款减计相比，简直就是业余级选手。
 巴菲特试图卖掉通用的衍生品集团。但是没有买家。出脱是如此的昂贵，导致他警告说，衍生工具是一个“大规模杀伤性的金融武器”。那是2002年。
 衍生品泡沫五年里爆炸式地增加了5倍

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