一个充满活力的两部门模型分析金融发展之间的相互关系和工业增长

中文字数:3947,中文页数:7  英文字数:2393页数:9

Abstract
Motivated by Feder's two-sector model concerning exports and growth, this article intends to propose a dynamic framework, which bases on the production function theory and consists of two versions of the two-sector (the financial sector and the real sector) model, for analyzing the interrelation between financial development and economic growth in terms of intersectoral externalities. The approach is applied as a prototype to the case of financial liberalization and industrial growth in Taiwan using deflated annual data for 1961–1996. Growth equations are derived and the externality series are estimated. Regressions incorporating the economic/financial variables as well as a linear spline in time variable are set up for testing the externality series. The results show that the financial-supply-leading version is more prevailing in the studied case. The externality series of the supply-leading version are highly related to the financial variables, while those of the demand-following version are related to real variables that affect the industrial production.
Keywords: Financial development; Industrial growth; Dynamic two-sector model

摘要
由于两部门模型的出口和经济增长，本文打算提出一个动态的框架，立足于生产函数理论，包括两个版本的两部门（金融部门和实际部门）模型，为分析之间的相互关系的金融发展和经济增长间的外部条件。该方法适用于作为一个原型的案件，金融自由化和工业增长在台湾使用瘪年度数据1961年至1996年。生长方程的推导和外部一系列估计。回归纳入经济/金融变量以及线性样条在时间变量的设置进行测试的外部系列。结果表明，金融供给领先的版本更普遍的研究案例。一系列外部供应领先的版本是高度相关的金融变数，而需求以下版本都与真正的变数，影响工业生产。
关键词：金融发展;工业增长;动态两部门模型

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